European PC market surges as Windows 10 deadline boosts AI sales

The European PC market has experienced strong growth in the third quarter of 2025 as both businesses and consumers respond to the upcoming end of support for Windows 10.

New figures released by market intelligence firm CONTEXT show substantial year-on-year growth in sales of both desktops and notebooks during the first two months of Q3, with the AI PC segment accounting for a particularly notable share.

According to the data, desktop revenues climbed 30.3% compared to the same period last year, while notebook revenues increased by 11.3%. This builds on what CONTEXT describes as an already strong second quarter for the PC market, driven in large part by organisations updating older equipment and preparing for the compulsory transition to Windows 11.

Commercial and consumer demand

The demand in the commercial sector has been especially prominent. Notebook sales to businesses grew by more than 13% year-on-year, which CONTEXT analysts attribute to small and medium-sized businesses actively participating in the refresh cycle ahead of the Windows 10 deadline at the end of October. Sales of consumer notebooks also rose, although the increase was more moderate at just over 8% year-on-year.

At the country level, many top European markets saw double-digit growth in notebook revenue during August. Germany recorded an 18% increase in year-on-year notebook revenue, while Spain reported growth of 48% in the same period. CONTEXT stated that desktop sales were bolstered not only by commercial and consumer demand but also by public sector investment, with Germany in particular benefiting from these programmes.

AI-capable PC share rises

In the notebook segment, AI-capable models fitted with Neural Processing Units (NPUs) have gained a strong position. CONTEXT's data indicates that these devices accounted for approximately 39% to 40% of total notebook unit sales in European distribution during Q3 so far. The share of AI-capable notebooks in the commercial market is higher at 46% compared to 29% in the consumer market.

Within the AI notebook segment, the more advanced Copilot+ PCs - which feature NPUs capable of 40 or more trillion operations per second (TOPS) - are gradually expanding their presence. These high-specification notebooks now constitute 15% of AI-capable notebook unit sales. CONTEXT attributes this upturn to a broader range of processor vendors, increased model variety, and recent price reductions that have encouraged more buyers to choose these devices.

"The AI PC market is beginning to find its footing in Europe," said Marie-Christine Pigott, Senior Analyst at CONTEXT. "While uptake was initially slower than the industry anticipated, we are now seeing more progress. In the Copilot+ category, demand is still restrained, but recent data and market feedback suggest we could be at a turning point.The combination of broader vendor participation, richer product choice, and more competitive pricing is creating the conditions for more sustainable growth."

She added, "But even more importantly, with the Windows 10 deadline acting as a catalyst for refresh, AI-capable devices are increasingly positioned as the future-ready option for businesses that want to ensure their PCs are powerful and secure enough for future AI applications ."

Market growth across Europe

Looking at year-on-year distribution revenue growth in July and August 2025, CONTEXT recorded gains in most major European markets. The United Kingdom saw PC revenues rise by 13%, Germany by 21.4%, and France by 15.2%. Spain and Finland both saw particularly significant increases at 33.8% and 30% respectively, while Norway posted a 31.1% improvement. Smaller markets also contributed positively, including Switzerland (21.3%), Belgium (19.2%), and Austria (19.9%).

Some countries experienced slight declines, with the Netherlands and Czechia reporting decreases of 4.7% and 2.1% respectively, and Lithuania falling by 10.6%. However, overall performance across the continent was described as robust, with public sector investment and the cyclical refresh of aged devices acting as further drivers.

AI's future role in enterprise computing

As the European PC market transitions into an era of devices increasingly optimised for artificial intelligence, analysts expect the proportion of AI-capable systems - particularly in business environments - to continue rising. CONTEXT's data suggests that as Windows 10 support ends, the market is responding by accelerating purchasing decisions in favour of hardware considered suitable for future AI-powered software developments.